University of Portsmouth expert reveals declining competitive balance in English cricket

Research by a University of Portsmouth academic has revealed concerning signs of declining competitive balance in English county cricket, particularly since the introduction of The Hundred tournament in 2021.

Dr Sarthak Mondal, a lecturer in sport management at the University of Portsmouth, contributed a dedicated competitive balance analysis to the Leonard Curtis Cricket Finance Report 2025, which examined the financial health of England and Wales' 18 first-class counties ahead of a £520 million investment from The Hundred franchise sales.

Dr Mondal's research used the HICB academic metric to measure competitive balance across county cricket's main competitions from 2014 to 2024. 

His analysis found that in the 50-over One-Day Cup, overall competitive balance declined by 15.38 per cent from 75.83 in 2014 to 64.17 in 2024. Most significantly, over the four seasons since The Hundred began (2021-2024), when One-Day Cup group stage matches were played alongside The Hundred, average competitive balance dropped by 14.09 per cent compared to the 2014-2019 period.

"English cricket is at a crossroads now," said Dr Mondal. “Since the introduction of The Hundred, competitive balance in limited overs format has declined despite the counties making approximately £500 million from the sale of its 8 franchisees.” 

“With growing investment from private owners in the County game, it is time for the ECB to get back to the drawing board and develop a calendar that protects both the developmental pipelines and the commercial interests for long-term benefits of the game."

The research suggests this decline may be attributed to county teams losing several top players to The Hundred during the One-Day Cup's group stages. Nottinghamshire appeared to suffer the biggest impact, with their average group stage position dropping from second (2014-2019) to fourth (2021-2024), failing to qualify for the semi-finals in any of the last four seasons.

Dr Mondal's analysis also examined competitive balance through multiple lenses, including the impact of bonus points in the County Championship and the increasing dominance of group winners in knockout competitions. He found that approximately one-third of counties in the Championship were affected by bonus points between 2014-2024, with Division 2 teams (37 per cent) more affected than Division 1 teams (30 per cent). However, this impact has declined post-COVID.

In terms of knockout competition dynamics, Dr Mondal discovered that group winners have become more likely to win trophies post-COVID. In the One-Day Cup, group winners won three out of four editions between 2021-2024, compared to just one out of six between 2014-2019. The T20 Blast showed a similar pattern, with group winners claiming two out of four post-COVID editions compared to three out of seven in the earlier period.

His research also revealed regional dominance patterns, with South region teams winning six out of ten One-Day Cup editions between 2014-2024, and all T20 Blast winners post-COVID coming from the South Group.

Using the Gini index to measure inequality in tournament wins, Dr Mondal calculated that from 2014 to 2024, the County Championship was 72 per cent competitive, while the One-Day Cup was 83 per cent competitive and the T20 Blast 92 per cent competitive.

Dr Mondal, from the University of Portsmouth’s School of Psychology, Sport and Health Sciences, has established himself as a leading researcher in sports analytics and governance. Earlier this year, he developed a computer model that successfully predicted tournament outcomes, including work on the Women's Euro 2025 championships.

His competitive balance research represents pioneering work in cricket analysis, conducted as the first scholarly investigation into competitive balance in international cricket alongside Professor Rob Wilson and Dr Dan Plumley.

The broader Leonard Curtis report, which incorporated Dr Mondal's competitive balance findings alongside financial performance analysis, revealed significant financial disparities between counties. Surrey, Lancashire, and Warwickshire generated 44 per cent of all county revenue in 2023, while some counties rely on ECB distributions for over two-thirds of their income.

Dr Mondal concluded that the declining competitive balance should present "a cause of concern for the ECB," warning that governing bodies must consider the unintended consequences of competition design and structure. He said: "It is therefore imperative that all stakeholders are aware of the impact of such elements in each competition before any future decisions are made.”

The research highlights the complex challenges facing English cricket as it balances commercial success with sporting integrity, suggesting that careful consideration will be needed to ensure The Hundred windfall benefits the entire county system rather than exacerbating existing competitive imbalances.